Dallas Mavericks Win 2025 NBA Draft Lottery in Shocking Upset Cooper Flagg emerges as the likely top pick as Mavericks overcome 1.8% odds

In an outcome that has reshaped the upcoming NBA Draft landscape, the Dallas Mavericks have secured the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft after winning the draft lottery against overwhelming odds. Entering the night with just a 1.8% chance to land the top selection, the Mavericks leapfrogged several teams with worse records, defying statistical probabilities and altering the franchise’s future trajectory.

The San Antonio Spurs secured the second overall pick, adding to a roster already bolstered by last year’s number one selection, Victor Wembanyama. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers, another surprise mover, landed the third pick.

A Franchise-Altering Moment for Dallas

For the Mavericks, this unexpected windfall presents a rare opportunity to pair another elite talent alongside superstar Luka Dončić. Since drafting Dončić in 2018, Dallas has struggled to build a consistent contender, facing playoff inconsistencies and roster turnover. The addition of the number one pick is expected to bring renewed optimism and flexibility to a team hungry for postseason success.

The clear frontrunner to be selected with the top pick is Cooper Flagg, a freshman phenom from Duke University. Widely regarded as one of the most complete prospects in recent memory, Flagg has drawn comparisons to NBA greats for his versatile skill set, defensive intensity, and basketball IQ.

Who Is Cooper Flagg?

Cooper Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward from Newport, Maine, entered Duke with immense expectations after reclassifying to the high school class of 2024 and becoming the top-ranked recruit in the country. In his freshman year, Flagg averaged 18.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.4 blocks per game, earning ACC Freshman of the Year honors and leading Duke to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight.

Flagg is praised by scouts for his defensive versatility, court vision, and motor. His ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor makes him a rare two-way player. With a wingspan over seven feet, Flagg can guard multiple positions and has shown maturity beyond his years in both his leadership and on-court decision-making.

Should Dallas select Flagg, he would join a core featuring Dončić and Kylie Irving, offering the Mavericks a unique blend of youth and experience. Analysts believe Flagg’s defensive instincts and unselfish play would be an ideal complement to Dončić’s ball-dominant offensive style.

The Lottery System: How It Works

The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order of selection for the teams that did not make the playoffs. Designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing to gain better draft position — a practice known as “tanking” — the lottery gives all 14 non-playoff teams a chance at landing a top-four pick, with weighted odds based on their regular-season records.

The Mavericks finished the 2024–25 season on the playoff bubble, narrowly missing the postseason. Their slim 1.8% chance of winning the lottery was one of the lowest among eligible teams, making their ascension to the top spot all the more remarkable. In the history of the NBA lottery, only a handful of teams have won the top pick with such long odds.

This outcome has reignited discussions among analysts about the unpredictability and fairness of the lottery system. While some argue it promotes competitive balance, others suggest it can reward teams that miss the playoffs despite fielding relatively competitive rosters.

Spurs and 76ers Round Out the Top Three

The San Antonio Spurs, who held stronger lottery odds after another rebuilding season, landed the second pick. After drafting Victor Wembanyama in 2023, the Spurs appear poised to add another high-impact prospect to their young roster. Experts believe the team may target a backcourt star to complement Wembanyama’s interior dominance.

Several names have surfaced as potential fits for San Antonio, including guard Dylan Harper of Burgers and USC’s Isaiah Collier, both of whom impressed scouts during their freshman campaigns. The Spurs, under longtime head coach Gregg Popovich, continue to invest in young talent, and the upcoming draft is another building block in that strategy.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers, who entered the lottery with modest odds, made a surprising jump into the top three. The 76ers face an uncertain offseason with aging stars and potential contract decisions looming. Securing the third overall pick may allow the franchise to transition more smoothly into a new era or use the asset in a potential trade to bolster their current roster.

Historical Context: Long Odds and Lottery Winners

The Mavericks’ win echoes past lottery surprises. In 1993, the Orlando Magic won the lottery with just a 1.5% chance, selecting Chris Webber before trading him for Penny Hardaway and future picks. Similarly, in 2008, the Chicago Bulls won the first pick with a 1.7% chance, using it to draft Derrick Rose, who would go on to win an MVP award.

For Dallas, this moment may prove equally pivotal. The Mavericks last had the number one overall pick in 1981, when they selected Mark Agree, who became a foundational player for the franchise in the 1980s.

Draft Day Strategy and Implications

While Cooper Flagg is widely expected to go first, the Mavericks may explore all options before draft night. Sources around the league suggest Dallas could entertain trade offers for the pick, especially from teams looking to leap into the top slot to secure Flagg.

However, considering the scarcity of elite two-way forwards and the Mavericks’ recent struggles with defensive consistency, keeping the pick and selecting Flagg appears to be the most prudent course of action.

Beyond the top three selections, this year’s draft class is deep with talent. Other prospects projected to go in the top 10 include international forward Nikola Đurišić, UConn big man Donovan Clingan, and Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham.

What’s Next?

The 2025 NBA Draft is scheduled to take place on June 26 in Brooklyn, New York. Leading up to the event, teams will conduct pre-draft workouts, combine evaluations, and interviews to finalize their strategies. With Flagg not participating in many public workouts, much of the evaluation will rely on in-season scouting and private team visits.

As the draft approaches, expect increased speculation surrounding trades, mock drafts, and team intentions. But for now, the spotlight belongs to the Dallas Mavericks — a team that, against all odds, won the right to shape its future.

Conclusion

The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery delivered one of the most surprising outcomes in recent memory. For the Mavericks, it marks a potential turning point in their pursuit of long-term contention. Cooper Flagg, with his all-around game and sky-high potential, could be the cornerstone they’ve been seeking.

As teams prepare for the draft, fans around the league are left to ponder what this unexpected turn of events could mean for the balance of power in the NBA. While the lottery may be a game of chance, its consequences are anything but random. For Dallas, it may be the stroke of luck that defines a new era.